Today grain futures

Corn futures closed 3 to 5 cents lower on the day. The bears are in control thus far, with the Dec 14 contract posting a new life of contract low close at $4.16. According to EIA data, ethanol production averaged 953,000 barrels per day, which was up 15,000 b/d from the week before. That reflects corn consumption of about 104 million bushels for the week. We are closing in on the record weekly ethanol production of 963,000 bpd, set in December 2011. Stocks of ethanol were unchanged at 18.2 million barrels. There were zero imports. There were 5 deliveries against the July14 contract, bringing the MTD total to 11 lots. The DTN National Corn Index was last reported down $0.03 from the previous day at $3.98. Trade ideas for USDA weekly export sales to be reported Thursday morning are in the 500-900,000 MT range for combined old and new crop bookings.

Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.18 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents,
Sep 14 Corn closed at $4.12 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents,
Dec 14 Corn closed at $4.18, down 4 3/4 cents
Mar 15 Corn closed at $4.29 1/4, down 5 cents

Soybean futures closed 3 to 13 cents lower on the day. The Aug 14 contract displayed the most weakness and was down over a dime. China was said to have sold 106,000 MT out of 355,000 MT auctioned out of their reserves this week. There are some concerns about a buildup of port stocks in China. They are reportedly back up to 7 MMT, which can limit the short term need for imports. There were 3 deliveries against the July14 contract, bringing the MTD total to 24 lots. The DTN National Soybean Index was last reported down $0.04 from the previous day at $13.57. Trade estimates for old and new crop export sales last week are in the 300-650,000 MT range, with nearly all of those expected to be new crop. The USDA weekly report is set for 7:30 am CDT.

Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $13.92 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents,
Aug 14 Soybeans closed at $13.14 3/4, down 13 cents,
Sep 14 Soybeans closed at $11.80 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents,
Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $11.41 1/2, down 6 cents,
Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $452.30, down $3.80,
Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at $38.47, down $0.40

Wheat futures closed 2 cents higher to 17 cents lower. The July 14 KCBT contract displayed the most weakness and was down 17 cents at $6.83. Early reports from the Kansas Grain & Feed Association wheat harvest update are reporting a wide range of yields between 35-75 bpa in the Nemaha County Kansas area. Other reports in Republic County are reporting yields between 16-45 bpa. There were 51 deliveries against the July14 CBOT contract, bringing the MTD total to 206 lots. Paris wheat milling futures for Nov 14 delivery were unch at 184.25 today. Traders have modest expectations for USDA weekly export sales to be reported in the morning. Trade guesses are running 300-450,000 MT.

Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.61 3/4, up 2 cents,
Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.83, down 17 cents,
Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.51 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents
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Today Grain Futures

Corn futures came back late in the session to settle 1 1/4 to 2 3/4 lower. December 15 futures were 2 3/4 higher. The early weakness consisted of leftover selling from the Monday USDA reports, and also from the excellent crop condition ratings reported on Monday night. The Brugler500 index for corn rose to 389 from 386 the previous week. It was 373 a year ago. Bulls were counting on lower acreage to offset current high perceived yield potential. That didn’t happen. Now they need evidence that the lower prices are stimulating additional consumption, and/or that heavy rains and hail are causing more problems than in a typical year.

Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.22 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,
Sep 14 Corn closed at $4.16, down 2 3/4 cents,
Dec 14 Corn closed at $4.22 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents
Mar 15 Corn closed at $4.34 1/4, down 2 cents

Soybean futures settled 1/2 to 11 cents lower today. July futures settled at exactly $14, with a $2.20 drop in nearby meal futures putting a little pressure on product value. The market needed to move to a new pricing tier to reflect that record high 84.839 acres reported by USDA and the potential for a 400 million bushel carryover. The Brugler500 crop condition index increased 1 point from last week to 381, so yield perceptions are still high.

Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.00, down 1/2 cent,
Aug 14 Soybeans closed at $13.27 3/4, down 2 cents,
Sep 14 Soybeans closed at $11.83 3/4, down 10 cents,
Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $11.47 1/2, down 9 3/4 cents,
Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $456.10, down $2.20,
Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at $38.87, up $0.02

Wheat futures continued to see pressure from the surprising rise in spring wheat acres reported on Monday. KC futures were down 5 to 10 cents. MPLS was down 5 1/2 to 10 cents. Chicago SRW was less directly affected and settled 5 lower to 2 higher. Egypt’s GASC took advantage of the Monday sell off to buy 180,000 MT of Romanian wheat and 60,000 MT from Russia. The Brugler500 condition index was at 269 last night, UNCH from the previous week. The HRW subindex improved by 2 points TO 247, while the SRW index was down 2 from the previous week to 363.

Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.59 3/4, down 5 cents,
Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.00, down 10 1/2 cents,
Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.57 1/4, down 10 cents

Today grain future

Corn futures closed moderately lower losing 5 to 9 cents across the board. After the close, USDA showed 16% of the US crop is silking, well behind the 35% average for this date. Condition ratings in the top category were unchanged from last week, with 17% of the crop reported in Excellent condition. However, the Brugler500 index declined 4 points from 375 to 371. Earlier this morning, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 120,000 MT to an unknown destination for delivery during the 2013/14 marketing year. Old crop weekly USDA Export Inspections report for the reporting period ending July 11th came in at 16.280 (mbu) vs. 8.20 (mbu) from the previous week. Market year to date figures are now at 606.117 (mbu) vs. 1,368,349 (mbu) from the previous year. The USDA forecast for the full year is 700 million bushels.

Sep 13 Corn closed at $5.36 1/4, down 9 1/4 cents,
Dec 13 Corn closed at $5.03 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents,
Mar 14 Corn closed at $5.15 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents
May 14 Corn closed at $5.23 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents

Soybeans ended the day higher, rising 3 to 23 cents with the August starting the week with impressive gains. Record high cash basis prices helped provide a bullish influence. NOPA crush figures were considered supportive, coming in at 119.05 (mbu) compared to estimates of 115 (mbu). This was down from 122.06 (mbu) in May. Soyoil stocks were reported at 2,300 mil lbs. USDA reported that 26% of the US bean crop has reached the flowering (blooming) stage. That compares to 40% average for this date. Crop conditions were a little worse, although 13% was reported in excellent condition up from 12% the prior week. The Brugler500 index declined 2 points from 370 to 368. Weekly USDA Export Inspections report for the week reporting period ending July 11th came in at 3.670 (mbu) vs. 2.481 (mbu) from the previous week. Current market year to date figures are now at 1,292,807 (mbu) vs. 1,250,963 (mbu) from the previous year.

Aug 13 Soybeans closed at $14.52 1/2, up 23 1/2 cents,
Sep 13 Soybeans closed at $13.12, up 13 3/4 cents,
Nov 13 Soybeans closed at $12.62, up 4 3/4 cents,
Jan 14 Soybeans closed at $12.66, up 4 1/4 cents,
Aug 13 Soybean Meal closed at $451.20, up $8.30,
Aug 13 Soybean Oil closed at $45.81, down $0.41

Wheat futures closed down 7 to 11 cents on the day. Sharp declines in corn prices were helping to provide a bearish a influence, USDA showed 67% of the winter wheat crop is harvested, lagging the 71% average. Ohio is only 28% harvested vs. the usual 82%. Spring wheat is 71% headed vs. the 73% average for this date. Spring wheat condition ratings dropped to 70% good/ex vs. 72% last week. Weekly USDA Export Inspections report for the week reporting period ending July 11th came in at 24.45 (mbu) vs. 28.837 (mbu) from the previous week. Year to date shipments total 136.6 million bushels vs. 116.2 million last year at this time.

Sep 13 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.69 3/4, down 11 1/4 cents,
Sep 13 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.01 1/2, down 7 cents,
Sep 13 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.54 3/4, down 11 3/4 cents

Today grain future

Corn futures finished the week with a gain, but closed on a sharply lower note today by declining 15 to 17 cents. Profit taking ahead of the weekend and talk of improved (i.e. wetter) weather forecasts into later next week provided a negative influence. The latest Commitment of Traders data for the reporting period between July 2- July 9 showed managed money increased their short position by 35,824 contracts bringing their total net short position to 55,767 contracts. USDA announced the FSA deadline for reporting acreage would be extended from July 15th to Aug 2nd. This morning, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 960,000 metric tons of new crop corn, a huge sale. We got a classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” reaction.

Jul 13 Corn closed at $7.01 1/2, down 15 1/4 cents,
Sep 13 Corn closed at $5.45 1/2, down 15 1/4 cents,
Dec 13 Corn closed at $5.09 1/4, down 17 3/4 cents
Mar 14 Corn closed at $5.21 1/2, down 17 3/4 cents

Soybeans finished the day 38 to 43 lower. The July contract expired, and some of the very patient longs were cashing out ahead of expiration. The latest Commitment of Traders data for the reporting period July 2- July 9 showed managed money specs increased their long position by 1,376 contracts bringing their total net long position to 112,188. New crop started the week with November at $12.28 ¼. It was up 60 cents for the week this morning before the profit taking kicked in. It still posted a net gain for the week.

Jul 13 Soybeans closed at $15.63 1/4, down 38 cents,
Aug 13 Soybeans closed at $14.29, down 43 cents,
Sep 13 Soybeans closed at $12.98 1/4, down 34 1/4 cents,
Nov 13 Soybeans closed at $12.57 1/4, down 33 1/2 cents,
Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at $535.50, up $9.80,
Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at $46.09, down $0.40

Wheat futures closed mixed, with CBOT Wheat declining 3 ¾ while KC Wheat finishing a ¼ higher. The market was unable to find follow through after the bullish USDA numbers from Thursday. The Commitment of Traders Disag data released tonight for the reporting period between July 2- July 9 showed managed money decreased their short position by 2,308 contracts but still hold a net short position of 47,844 contracts. Global wheat ending stocks for the 2012/13 crop were cut 5.37 MMT, and the new crop estimate was down 8.87 MMT from last month. For the 2013/14 marketing year, US HRW ending stocks were put at 209 mbu, HRS ending stocks are estimated to be 181 mbu, and the total ending stocks figure is 576 mbu.

Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.75 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents,
Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.12 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents,
Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.96 1/4, down 1/4 cent

Today grain future

Corn futures settled 5 ½ to 7 cents higher today. Shorts are still trying to wriggle out of the July before expiration. The USDA cut projected old crop stocks 40 million bushels, confirming the tightness. World ending stocks were tightened for both old crop and new crop. Trade estimates for weekly export sales were only 300-600,000 MT. Early this morning, USDA put the total for last week at 1,049,800 MT, showing that the domestic cash price got low enough to renew export interest.

Jul 13 Corn closed at $7.16 3/4, up 7 cents,
Sep 13 Corn closed at $5.60 3/4, up 7 cents,
Dec 13 Corn closed at $5.27, up 5 1/2 cents
Mar 14 Corn closed at $5.39 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents

Soybeans rallied to settle 3 ½ to 9 ½ higher. USDA left US old crop ending stocks unchanged from the June report, but increased ending stocks for the 2013/14 marketing year by 30 million bushels (mbu). The new crop harvested acreage estimate grew 700,000 acres from last month as indicated in the June 28 report, with no changes on the usage side. Global soybean ending stocks projections were larger for both the old crop and new crop balance sheets. The Chinese production estimate was .5 MMT higher this month, and imports were left unchanged. The Argentine production estimate shrank 1MMT from the June report. USDA weekly export sales totaled only 339,900 MT for both marketing years, with a net reduction for 2012/13.

Jul 13 Soybeans closed at $16.01 1/4, up 9 1/2 cents,
Aug 13 Soybeans closed at $14.72, up 7 1/4 cents,
Sep 13 Soybeans closed at $13.32 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents,
Nov 13 Soybeans closed at $12.90 3/4, up 6 cents,
Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at $525.70, up $5.20,
Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at $46.49, down $0.49

Chicago wheat futures closed higher, but the larger than expected USDA estimates for HRW and Spring Wheat production put the other two markets in negative territory for the day. US wheat ending stocks for 2013/14 were cut 83 mbu, more than 12.5% from the previous report. That was accomplished via a 100 million bushel hike in expected exports. Global wheat ending stocks for the 2012/13 crop were cut 5.37 MMT, and the new crop estimate subsequently shrank 8.87 MMT, due in large part to a substantial increase in Chinese use of feed wheat. For the 2013/14 marketing year, HRW ending stocks were put at 209 mbu, HRS ending stocks are estimated to be 181 mbu, and the total ending stocks figure is 576 mbu. That is the smallest since 2008. USDA also reported weekly export sales last week were 1,473,300 MT, almost 40% larger than trade expectations going into the report.

Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.79 1/4, up 7 1/4 cents,
Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.11 1/2, down 1/2 cent,
Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.96 1/2, down 1 cent