Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap – Trade Picks Up Ahead of WASDE Report; Most Traders Bullish

The U.S. cash rice market was somewhat active today as traders attempted to position themselves ahead of tomorrow’s USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate. Most analysts expect the report to be bullish for rice prices, showing decreased carry over and reduced new crop field yields. However, this bias does not come without risk as market participants have expected bullish USDA reports in the past and have been disappointed.

As of today, offers from farmers that could be found today were slightly firmer today around $16.85-$17.25 per cwt fob farm (about $371-$380 per ton) for 50 pounds of whole rice or better for June shipment while offers from resellers continue to increase with the futures market to less attractive levels.

Bids from some mills increased to around $15.85 per cwt (about $349 per ton) for June delivery while bids from smaller mills and exporters increased to around $16.50 per cwt (about $364 per ton) for June delivery although several trades were reported to have occurred as high as $16.75 per cwt (about $369 per ton) for prompt delivery.

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Old Crop Supplies Dwindle, Prices Firm; New Crop Conditions Improve Marginally

The U.S. cash rice market remains firm as rice at the farm gate becomes more difficult to source while resellers continue to ask for higher prices. However, bids have not been able to keep pace with the level of offers and as result there is very little trade activity to report.

Offers from farmers that could be found today were unchanged near $16.85 per cwt fob farm (about $371 per ton) for 50 pounds of whole rice or better for June shipment although some are now asking for around $17.77 per cwt (about $392 per ton). Offers from resellers increased with the futures market to less attractive levels.

Bids from some were unchanged around $15.70 per cwt (about $346 per ton) for June delivery while bids from smaller mills and exporters could held steady around $16.40 per cwt (about $362 per ton) for June delivery however sellers were unwilling to part with their rice at these levels.

In the meantime, the USDA estimated that as of June 9, 94% of the U.S. rice crop had emerged compared to 88% a week ago and 93% this week last year. At this time, rice has emerged on 95% of the crop in Arkansas, 87% in California, 99% in Louisiana, 90% in Mississippi, 98% in Missouri, and 98% in Texas.

The USDA considers 38% of the US crop in very poor to fair condition down slightly from 39% last week – 49% of the crop in Arkansas is said to be in very poor to fair condition compared to 5% in California, 41% in Louisiana, 38% in Mississippi, 46% in Missouri, and 58% in Texas.

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Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap – Market Remains Firm, Despite Decreasing Export Sales

The U.S. cash rice market remains firm despite export sales decreasing for the second consecutive week. However, there was very little trade activity to speak of today as buyers and sellers remain about $0.50-$0.75 per cwt (about $11-17 per ton) apart. Some analysts were concerned by the heavy rain that passed across part of Arkansas last night, fearing that it could reduce field yields and force farmers who were planning on planting their remain acres with rice to reconsider in favor of a different crop.

As of today, offers from farmers were could still be found around $16.25-$16.50 per cwt fob farm (about $358-$364 per ton) for 50 pounds of whole rice or better for June shipment while offers from resellers were unchanged as similar levels.

Bids from some mills increased to around $15.00 per cwt (about $331 per ton) for June delivery which generated zero selling interest while bids from smaller mills and exporters increased to around $16.00 per cwt (about $353 per ton) for June delivery although there were rumors that at least 1 barge traded around $16.10 per cwt (about $356 per ton) however this is believed to be for domestic consumption.

In the meantime, today the USDA reported that for the week ending on May 24, U.S. rice exporters sold 34,000 tons, which was 42% lower than last week and 45% lower than the prior 4-week average, with the primary destinations including: 17,200 tons to Mexico, 8,000 tons to Taiwan, 1,600 tons to Jordan, 1,200 tons Canada, and 1,100 tons to South Korea.

U.S. rice exporters shipped 27,900 tons, which was 43% lower than last week and 66% lower than the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations included: 8,500 tons to Haiti, 5,800 tons to Taiwan, 3,200 tons to Colombia, 2,600 tons to Mexico, and 2,400 tons to Saudi Arabia.

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice : Bids Decline on Futures

The U.S. cash rice market was fairly quiet today as bids declined amid a sell-off in the futures market while seller price ideas continue to hold at levels most buyers are unwilling to pay.

Analysts suggest that if the weakness in the futures market continues, it could create opportunities for buyers to cancel Chicago Board of Trade warehouse receipts at levels lower than where they could buy cash rice from farmers or resellers.

As of today, offers from farmers were unchanged near $16.25-$16.50 per cwt fob farm (about $358-$364 per ton) for 50 pounds of whole rice or better for May-June shipment while offers from resellers increased to less attractive levels despite weakness in the futures market.

Bids from some mills decreased to around $14.85 per cwt (about $327 per ton) for May-June delivery which generated absolutely no selling interest while bids from smaller mills and exporters declined to around $15.85 per cwt (about $349 per ton) for May-June delivery of pounds although at least one small trade occurred around $16.15 per cwt (about $356 per ton) for prompt shipment.