Today Grain Future

Corn futures closed 4 to 7 cents lower on Wednesday. CONAB raised its Brazilian 13/14 corn production estimate to 78.2 MMT, which compares to the previous month forecast of 77.9 MMT. USDA pegged the Brazil crop at 76.0 MMT in its June report. According to EIA data, US ethanol production slowed to average 927,000 barrels per day, which was down 26,000 b/d from the week before. Stocks of ethanol were up 100,000 at 18.3 million barrels. Ethanol imports (the first in nearly two months) were reported at 9,000 bpd. Earlier this morning private exporters reported to the USDA the export sales of 101,600 metric tons of corn to Japan during the 2014/2015 marketing year; and export sales of 107,696 metric tons of corn to unknown destinations during the 2014/2015 marketing year. The trade average guess for US corn yield on Friday is 165.9 bpa, up from 165.3 in the prior report. Old crop ending stocks are expected to rise to 1.233 billion bushels, with the June 30 report suggesting smaller feed & residual use. New crop stocks estimates are mostly in excess of 1.8 billion bushels.

Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.04, down 4 1/4 cents,
Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.91 1/4, down 7 cents,
Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.98, down 6 1/4 cents
Mar 15 Corn closed at $4.09 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents

Soybean futures settled 4 3/4 higher to 14 lower. Brazil’s CONAB raised 13/14 soybean production to 86.3 MMT, this is up from 86.1 MMT in June but still below the most recent USDA estimate of 87.5 MMT. Trader talk is that Soybean acres in India are expected to drop to the lowest in five years because of the late monsoon season. There were 3 deliveries against the July 14 contract, bringing the MTD total to 35 lots. The trade average yield estimate for the Friday USDA reports is 45.1 bpa according to a Bloomberg survey. Trade expectations for the USDA weekly export sales report in the morning are in the 250,000 to 650,000 MT range, with some again expecting net cancellations for old crop.

Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $13.34 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents,
Aug 14 Soybeans closed at $12.46 1/2, down 2 cents,
Sep 14 Soybeans closed at $11.32, down 8 3/4 cents,
Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $11.03 3/4, down 12 1/2 cents,
Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $439.50, up $2.20,
Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at $37.04, down $0.76

Wheat futures lower on all three exchanges, with double digit losses in the hard wheat markets. There were 18 deliveries against the July 14 CBOT contract overnight, bringing the MTD total to 258 lots. Official Russian wheat exports for last year (July 1-June 30) were 18.297 MMT. Egypt bought 240,000 MT of Romanian wheat for August shipment. US wheat was competitive on a FOB basis, but not after freight. A Bloomberg survey puts the average trade guess for all wheat production at 1.964 billion bushels vs. 1.942 billion in June. USDA will update the number on Friday morning. Traders are looking for USDA to show weekly export sales totaled 350,000 to 650,000 MT last week.

Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.39 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents,
Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.60 3/4, down 14 1/4 cents,
Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.40, down 12 cents

Live Cattle closed $1.30 to $3.00 lower on the day. Feeders were limit down for a while, but both markets rallied back into the close. We suspect a big long or two getting out on trader talk of demand concerns. Wholesale beef prices were mixed in the afternoon report, , with choice boxes up $0.59 and select boxes down $.36. The price for choice was a record at $250.57. USDA reported moderate demand and moderate packer offerings. Cash cattle asking prices appear to be in the $160-162 vicinity with some reported basis trades at $157. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up $.24 at $214.09.

Aug 14 Cattle closed at $150.800, down $2.725,
Oct 14 Cattle closed at $153.550, down $2.425,
Dec 14 Cattle closed at $154.050, down $1.300,
Aug 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $213.600, down $2.300
Sep 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $215.200, down $2.275
Oct 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $214.875, down $2.675

Lean Hogs closed 90 cents lower to $1.20 higher. The average pork carcass cutout value was $1.05 higher at $135.38 in the afternoon report. The CME Lean Hog Index is up another $0.83 at $130.08. Cash hog prices in the ECB and were not reported due to lack of receipts. The WCB carcass average was up $1.81, with the IA/MN area on average $2.01 higher. Estimated week to date slaughter is 1.187 million head vs. 1.215 million a year ago. That is a 2.4% drop.

Jul 14 Hogs closed at $133.300, up $1.100,
Aug 14 Hogs closed at $129.600, down $0.250
Oct 14 Hogs closed at $115.400, down $0.900

Cotton futures settled 54 lower to 46 higher. December was down for the 10th day in the past 11 sessions. There were 49 deliveries against the July 14 contract overnight, with New Edge being the largest stopper of 36 contacts. Today was the last trading day for July futures. ICE Certified stocks were last reported at 409,824 bales, with 5,941 new certs, 14,569 decerts and 17,846 bales awaiting review. The Cotlook A Index is unchanged at 85.25. USDA is expected to reduce projected abandonment in the Friday report, raising estimated production.

Jul 14 Cotton closed at 74.97, down 3 points,
Oct 14 Cotton closed at 70.55, up 46 points
Dec 14 Cotton closed at 69.67, down 43 points