Today Grain Future

Ag Market Commentary

BRUG – 2 hrs 42 mins ago

Corn futures closed 7 to 9 cents lower across the board. The board was down as much as 10 – 12 cents at one point in the day but found some late session profit taking to close off the lows. Weekly export inspections last week were 1,080,525 MT, up from 886,949 MMT the prior week. YTD shipments are now 38,937,286 MT (1.532 billion bushels) which compares to 14,983,362 MT at this time last year. China has now re-sold 9.1 MMT of reserve corn to the domestic market since the auctions began in May. This afternoon USDA reported that 15% of the US crop is silking, behind the average 18% for this date but ahead of the 6% a year ago. They rated the crop 75% good/excellent, UNCH vs. last week. The Brugler500 condition rating inched up to 390 from 389 last week. It was higher in 1994, 2000 and 2004 for this week.

Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.09 1/4, down 7 3/4 cents,
Sep 14 Corn closed at $4.00 1/2, down 9 cents,
Dec 14 Corn closed at $4.06 1/4, down 9 cents
Mar 15 Corn closed at $4.17 3/4, down 9 cents

Soybean futures closed 8 to 24 cents lower across the board. Private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 347,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2014-15 marketing year. Cumulative new crop commitments to China are still only 6.5 MMT. Weekly soybean export inspections were reported at 59,959 MT, down from 74,324 MT last week. YTD inspections are now at 42,659,339 MT (1.567 billion bu) which compares to 35,090,098 MT last year. USDA said tonight that condition ratings were UNCH from last week. The Brugler500 rating is 381. They show 24% of the crop blooming, ahead of the 21% average. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed the large spec funds reducing their net long position to the lowest level since 2011.

Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $13.63, down 24 3/4 cents,
Aug 14 Soybeans closed at $12.73 1/4, down 26 1/2 cents,
Sep 14 Soybeans closed at $11.50 1/4, down 16 1/2 cents,
Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $11.25 1/2, down 8 cents,
Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $443.70, down $3.30,
Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at $38.36, down $0.20

Wheat futures closed 18 to 23 cents lower on the day. The July 14 CBT contract displayed the most weakness and closed at $5.45. Weekly wheat export inspections were reported at 417,063 MT, up from 347,411 MT last week. YTD inspections are now at 2,267,143 MT which compares to 3,082,730 MT last year. USDA will issue the first 2014/15 supply/demand balance sheets by wheat class on Friday. Tonight, they reported that 57% of the winter wheat has been harvested, still lagging the 60% average. Kansas is now 70% done. USDA rated 31% of the crop good or excellent, vs. 30% last week. Spring wheat heading is at the normal pace of 47%. Spring wheat condition ratings slipped, with 6% rated poor/very poor vs. 5% last week.

Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.45, down 23 cents,
Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.78 1/2, down 18 1/2 cents,
Sep 14 MPLS Wheat closed at $6.61 3/4, down 10 3/4 cents

Live Cattle futures settled $0.05 to $0.85 lower. Feeders were $0.37 to $0.40 higher. Wholesale beef prices were higher today, with choice boxes up $0.06 at $248.18 and select boxes up $0.11 at $241.23 in the afternoon report. Last week packers bought some cattle in Nebraska at $158, with KS business at $157. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $.95 at $215.48. USDA’s estimated slaughter for last week was 491,000 head vs. 557,000 in the July 4 week the prior year. Monday slaughter was estimated at 112,000 head, down from 121,000 head a year ago. Supplies are still tight! USDA rates 56% of the crop in good/excellent condition, down from 58% last week.

Aug 14 Cattle are at $154.950, down $0.050
Oct 14 Cattle are at $156.675, down $0.225
Dec 14 Cattle are at $155.200, down $0.850
Aug 14 Feeder Cattle are at $218.000, up $0.375
Sep 14 Feeder Cattle are at $219.225, up $0.400
Oct 14 Feeder Cattle are at $219.200, up $0.350

Lean Hogs settled $0.07 to $1.10 higher. The average pork carcass cutout value was $.32 higher at $134.52 in the afternoon. The CME Lean Hog Index is up another $0.49 at $128.66 on Thursday. Cash hog prices were sharply higher, with the USDA direct hog carcass price up $3.41/cwt. in the IA/MN market and up $3.02 on average for the WCB. USDA didn’t hazard a guess on ECB values, due to only 2,898 receipts. The live basis price was quoted 33 cents higher at $99.95. Estimated weekly hog slaughter last week was 1.627 million head, down from 1.910 million the prior week and also down from the 1.784 million in the 2013 holiday week. Today’s run was estimated at 387,000 head, down 14,000 from last week and down 20,000 from year ago.

Jul 14 Hogs are at $131.800, up $0.0.07
Aug 14 Hogs are at $131.825, up $0.225
Oct 14 Hogs are at $117.850, up $1.100

Cotton futures closed 139 to 172 points lower on the day. The Dec 14 contract displayed the most weakness and has set a new low for the move at 70.00 China cotton futures on the Zhengzhou exchange for Jan delivery were down 1.51%. The Cotlook A Index is unchanged at 86.90. ICE Certified stocks were last reported at 418,894 bales, with 3,959 new certs, 47,549 decerts and 14,122 bales awaiting review. After the close, USDA reported that crop maturity continues to lag. They show 53% of the acreage squaring vs. the average of 60%. A whole 12% is setting bolls, lagging the 5 year average of 16%. Condition ratings improved, with 55% rated good or excellent vs. 53% last week.

Jul 14 Cotton closed at 74.83, down 139 points,
Oct 14 Cotton closed at 70.23, down 156 points
Dec 14 Cotton closed at 70.21, down 172 points