Grain Market– The grain market today was mixed with soybeans finishing nearly $.02 higher in the November contract closing around 11.83 a bushel after hitting contract lows at 11.70 in early trade only to have short covering come into the closing bell finishing near session highs. The one concern I do have about the soybeans is the fact that we are experiencing very cold weather & it would be nice to see some 90° days which could propel the crop progress even further & that report came out this afternoon and showed an increase by 1 percentage point at 64% good excellent which is outstanding in my opinion & we should have a record crop come fall.
I’m still recommending short positions across the board especially in corn and soybeans and now wheat has joined the party down $.15 today hitting new contract lows in the December contract at 6.57 a bushel and I’m advising a short position in wheat for a while but this market hasn’t gone anywhere except for today and I do think today’s action was critical and very supportive to the bears and I do believe prices are headed lower especially with excellent chart structure allowing you to place a stop above the 10 day high at 6.80 bushel.
Corn futures were down $.03 in the December contract 4.60 hitting another contract low rallying slightly off of session lows, however I still believe that prices could head lower and if you’re looking for that dead cat bounce to enter on the short side you might have to be patient because prices right now are still too expensive in my opinion especially with deflation in the air.
The grain market is acting like a classic bear market where it starts to grind lower almost on a daily basis and I do believe seasonality will be a factor in this market as prices generally trend lower until harvest ends which is late October and then prices start to rally into the new year and it looks to me that could happen again as the lows in my opinion are still substantially lower from today’s closing price. TREND: LOWER -CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT