Today grain news

Corn futures finished the day with gains of 1 to 3 cents across the board. The Rogers Index fund is rolling out of September futures to December today and tomorrow. The Sept/Dec spread widened for the second day in a row to finish at $0.20. Cash markets also added support with reports of ethanol bids surfacing. Weekly export sales due out tomorrow morning are expected to come in near 100-200,000 MT for old crop, and 300-400,000 MT for new crop. This is in comparison to the previous week which showed net reductions of 27,900 MT for old crop, and net sales of 515,900 MT for new crop. Earlier this morning, South Korea’s NOFI group cancelled their most recent tender for 70,000 MT of Corn for January 25th delivery. According to EIA data, ethanol production averaged 832,000 barrels per day (b/d) — or 34.94 million gallons daily. That is down 21,000 b/d from the week before and the lowest in 16 weeks. The four-week average for ethanol production stood at 861,000 b/d for an annualized rate of 13.12 billion gallons. Stocks of ethanol stood at 16.5 million barrels. That is a 4.7% decrease from last week and bull friendly. Imports of ethanol were 13,000 b/d, down significantly from last week. Year-to-date imports stood at 175.7 million gallons according to EIA weekly data. EPA expects 666 million gallons of imports will be needed to meet the 2013 advanced biofuel standard.

Sep 13 Corn closed at $4.99, up 3 1/2 cents,
Dec 13 Corn closed at $4.79, up 1 1/2 cents,
Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.91 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents
May 14 Corn closed at $4.99 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents

Soybeans closed the day 3 to 24 cents higher, with the August contract notching impressive double digit gains. Concerns of tight old crop supplies still linger and helped to support the front end of the board. After narrowing to $1.2025 late last week, the August 13/Nov 13 spread has widened back out to $1.6775. Weekly export sales due out tomorrow are expected to come in near 450-600,000 MT for new crop beans. This is in comparison to 665,200 MT the previous week. As we head into the pod fill stage, weather forecasts remain favorable. Earlier this morning, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 120,000 MT to an unknown destination for the 2013/14 marketing year.

Aug 13 Soybeans closed at $13.74, up 24 cents,
Sep 13 Soybeans closed at $12.49 3/4, up 3/4 cent,
Nov 13 Soybeans closed at $12.06 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents,
Jan 14 Soybeans closed at $12.11, up 3 cents,
Aug 13 Soybean Meal closed at $435.10, up $5.90,
Aug 13 Soybean Oil closed at $42.09, down $0.02

Wheat futures closed the day with moderate gains, with the Kansas City contract leading the way up 10 cents. Weekly export sales released tomorrow morning are expected to be between 400-500,000 MT. This is in comparison to 661,400 MT the previous week. The Chicago Wheat Dec13/Corn Dec13 continued to edge higher, adding another 9 cents to finish at $1.9800. Egypt’s GASC bought 240,000 MT of Romanian and Ukrainian Wheat for the delivery period Sept 11th to Sept 20th. This compares to the low made on June 27th which was $1.5275. The Wheat trade has been under the influence of bullish export news which has helped to stabilize the market amid declining Corn prices. This is tied to the expected 5 year low in world ending stocks in 2014. Bears will counter that supplies in major exporter countries are up despite the overall decline. Brazil import demand is also deemed supportive.

Sep 13 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.64 1/4, up 9 cents,
Sep 13 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.06 3/4, up 10 1/2 cents,
Sep 13 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.41 1/4, up 4 cents

When will the soybean free fall end? | Grain Market Viewpoint

Soybeans traders are desperately trying to figure out when the “free-fall” in price will end. For those fans who have not been carefully following along, the old-crop AUG13 contract has given up close to $2.00 per bushel since last Tuesday, while the new-crop NOV13 contract has shed close to $1.00 per bushel in the same time frame. The problem is that many bears believe we may have another $1.00 lower to go by harvest. Export sales were disappointing yesterday, but China continues to be a buyer of new-crop US soy. Not sure it will be nearly enough to reach the USDA’s lofty estimate, but nonetheless, at this moment they continue to be steady buyers. I should also point out the fact the Brazilian soybean crop seems to be getting bigger NOT smaller. Several sources are now much higher than the current USDA production estimate of 85.1 million, a few analysts are now estimating the crop at between 88-89 million metric tons.

The old-crop story seems to be somewhat dead in regards to “exports,” but I am hearing the crushers out east are still aggressively looking for domestic old-crop supplies. Producers are starting to ask more and more questions about “sunlight,” or should I say lack there of. One farmer called in yesterday and told us, “The cool wet weather and lack of overall growing units, not only heat units, but sunlight hours as well, are really stating to be a concern.” With lack of “heat and lack of “sunlight” there is some speculation beans may NOT yield as good as many in the trade are anticipating. Bottom line: A short-term technical bounce may be in order, but I doubt this market can mount a sustained rally during the next couple of weeks.

KS

US corn fortunes showing strong east-west divide

Lanworth warned of a “strong” divide in US corn production fortunes even as it hiked its forecast for the national crop by 350m bushels, lifting estimates for wheat production in Australia and Ukraine too.

The consultancy raised by 9.8m tonnes to 965.5m tonnes its forecast for global corn output in 2013-14, overtaking the US Department of Agriculture estimate of 959.8m tonnes.

The upgrade reflected in the main a lift of 2.0 bushels per acre, to 158.5 bushels per acre, in the estimate for the US corn harvest, the world’s biggest, thanks largely to “the absence of extreme warm temperatures in July, combined with outlooks for cool conditions during early August”.

The yield estimate is one of a series of late to come in above the USDA’s current figure of 156.5 bushels per acre, with Macquarie coming in with a 156.8 bushels-per-acre number, and Commodity Weather Group pegging the yield at 159.5 bushels per acre.

‘Widely divergent’

However, Lanworth cautioned that its upgraded forecast concealed “widely divergent yield potential” between different states, largely divided on an east-west Midwest basis, thanks to “strong regional differences” in planting conditions and in subsequent rainfall.

This month looks like being the second driest July since 1985.

“Corn could yield up to 6% above trend in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, South Dakota, and minor production states where planting conditions and rainfall have been favourable,” Lanworth said.

“By contrast, corn yield could fall 3-8% below trend in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and Wisconsin and 11-16% below trend in Kansas and North Dakota, where cold and/or wet planting and establishment conditions have been followed by extremely dry weather.”

The consultancy, which estimated the US crop at 14.0bn bushels, (965.5m tonnes) reported “mild or variable drought stress and impacts from late planting across Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska”.

More on the state of the US crop is set to be revealed by a series of Midwest crop tours next month, kicking off on Monday with one from MDA.

Wheat hopes

Lanworth raised its forecast for the Ukraine corn crop too, by 2.2m tonnes to 26.4m tonnes, taking it above the USDA estimate, thanks to near-normal temperatures and rainfall in major production districts.

And it lifted its estimate of the Ukraine wheat crop too, by 1.2m tonnes to 19.9m tonnes, after satellite imagery showed “yields may have approached trend”, in contrast to ideas earlier that high spring temperatures may have curtailed productivity.

The Australian crop was upgraded by 600,000 tonnes to 25.7m tonnes “based on above-average July precipitation across all major production areas.

“July soil moisture remains average to above average across all states but Victoria.

“Should relatively normal precipitation persist through August-October, Australia wheat production could reach 29.9m tonnes.”

Russian downgrade

However, Lanworth reduced by 1.6m tonnes, to 48.4m tonnes, its forecast for the Russian harvest, the latest in a series of industry downgrades.

“Though cool and wet conditions in the Urals and Siberian districts continue to support gains over last year’s low spring wheat yields, updated imagery indicates crop vegetation density across spring wheat production areas of the Volga District is only moderately higher than last year’s low levels,” the consultancy said.

KS

Inside Futures: Relevant trading-focused information authored by key players in the futures, options and forex industries

What Does Risk Management Mean To You? I generally tell people that the reason people lose money in commodities is not due to the fact that they are bad at predicting where prices are headed, however they are bad when it comes to losing trades and refusing to take a loss which results for heavy monetary losses that are difficult to come back from. For example if a customer has $100,000 account in my opinion on any given trade he or she should risk 2% – 3% of the account value meaning if you are wrong the worst-case scenario is still a $97,000 remaining balance, however what I always see is traders risking ridiculous amounts of money and instead of the 3% stop loss will risk 20% to 30% on any given trade or even higher therefore if you are wrong on two or three trades that $100,000 dollar account could dwindle down to nothing very quickly and I’ve seen it many times throughout my career.

What many traders forget to realize is they might have 4 or 5 commodity positions on and if you have too many contracts on all at the same time and all of those trades go against you which is very possible the losses can add up to be staggering so what I am suggesting to you is if you have $100,000 account risk between $2,000 – $3,000 per trade so if you lose on five straight trades the worst-case scenario is that your down $15,000 and still have an $85,000 balance which is very possible to still come back from and your still in the game.

If you are looking for a futures or option broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and I will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com Skype Address: mike.seery3
SEERY FUTURES ACCEPTS CANADIAN COMMODITY ACCOUNTS

KS

Today grain future

Corn futures closed 4 to 6 cents higher. The trade was under positive influence for the majority of the day as shorts looked to book profits as we approach the last trading day of July. Cash bids were seen 5-10 cents in the interior which also provided support. Earlier this morning, South Korea’s NOFI group was said to have purchased 50,000 of Black Sea Corn from CHS at $233.44/ton. The purchase terms are for an arrival date before Jan 15th. In addition, the NOFI group is said to be in negotiations to purchase another 70,000 tons by Jan 25th arrival date. The DTN National Corn Index hit a new low for the year yesterday finishing at $5.7012.

Sep 13 Corn closed at $4.95 1/2, up 6 1/4 cents,
Dec 13 Corn closed at $4.77 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents,
Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.90 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents
May 14 Corn closed at $4.98, up 4 cents

Soybeans finished the day 17 to 23 cents lower. The August contract experienced a volatile session, trading as high as $13.79 in the morning before surrendering all gains to close 17 cents lower at $13.50. August meal also traded in a wide range, trading as high as $447 before giving back earlier gains to close $9.70 lower at $429.20. Earlier this morning, private exporters reported to the USDA a sale of 290,000 MT o f soybeans to an unknown destination for the 2013/2014 marketing year. The DTN National Soybean Index hit a new low for the year yesterday finishing at $13.0084.

Aug 13 Soybeans closed at $13.50, down 17 1/2 cents,
Sep 13 Soybeans closed at $12.49, down 23 cents,
Nov 13 Soybeans closed at $12.03, down 17 cents,
Jan 14 Soybeans closed at $12.08, down 17 1/2 cents,
Aug 13 Soybean Meal closed at $429.20, down $9.70,
Aug 13 Soybean Oil closed at $42.11, down $0.36

Wheat futures finished the day with gains of 3 to 6 cents, with the Kansas City contract showing the most strength. Continued strong export demand from around the globe, as well as higher corn prices, provided the wheat trade with some positive influence. The Taiwan Flour Millers Association was said to have bought a total of 97,200 MT of US Wheat. The purchase was made in two cargoes split up between Alfred C. Toepfer International for 53,300 MT and Columbia Grain for 43,900 MT. The wheat purchases consisted of Dark Northern Spring, Hard Red Winter, and Western White. In other tender news, Japan announced that after a two month ban, they would resume Western White Wheat Imports from the US and would be looking to purchase up to 89,579 MT from the US. Global exports to China are still healthy with wires reporting China has purchased over 1.5 MT of Wheat from Australia over the past 6 weeks.

Sep 13 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.55 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents,
Sep 13 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.96 1/4, up 6 cents,
Sep 13 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.37 1/4, up 3 cents

KS