Today’s Grain Future

Corn futures closed 11.5 cents higher in the July contract and December futures dipped another 2.25 cents lower. Old crop supplies are still tight, as reflected by strong basis bids. Ethanol margins have been compressed by a slide in ethanol prices, but are still positive. A planned 5-day strike by Argentine farmers is set to begin on Saturday. In port corn stocks are reportedly lighter than for soybeans, and thus shipping delays could occur if the strike gets stretched out for any reason. In the CFTC commitment of traders report released after the close, managed money reduced their net long position in corn by 8,431 contracts for the report week ending June 11.

Jul 13 Corn closed at $6.55, up 11 1/2 cents,
Sep 13 Corn closed at $5.71 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents,
Dec 13 Corn closed at $5.33, down 2 1/4 cents
Mar 14 Corn closed at $5.44, down 2 1/2 cents

Soybean prices settled more than 6 cents higher in the July contract, and were off 2.25 cents for November. The active soybean meal export sales program is still driving strong processor demand for cash beans. Ocean freight costs have been kept low by surplus capacity, but a second large maritime firm has now filed for bankruptcy and others are expected. Over time that will result in higher freight costs. NOPA is expected to issue a monthly crush report on Monday. A Dow survey shows traders looking for May NOPA member crush to total 117.6 million bushels, but the range of estimates is 114 to 124 million bushels so there is some uncertainty. The average trade guess for soy oil stocks is 2.522 billion pounds. In the CFTC commitment of traders report released after the close, managed money increased their net long position in soybeans by 12,258 contracts as of the Tuesday close.

Jul 13 Soybeans closed at $15.16 1/2, up 6 1/4 cents,
Aug 13 Soybeans closed at $14.34, up 7 1/4 cents,
Sep 13 Soybeans closed at $13.42 1/2, up 1 cent,
Nov 13 Soybeans closed at $12.98 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents,
Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at $450.70, down $1.90,
Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at $48.48, up $0.64

Wheat futures closed 4 to 8 cents lower on the day. Total spring wheat acreage is expected to be reduced from the March intentions as at least 10% of the crop is still unplanted. USDA trimmed its production estimate for Russia by 2 MMT yesterday, but was still well above private analyst SovEcon. SovEcon raised its production estimate upward to 52 MMT, still 2 MMT below USDA, but they are converging. SovEcon sees Russian exports in the new marketing year at 14-15 MMT, below the USDA figure of 17 MMT. In the CFTC commitment of traders report released after the close, managed money reduced their net short position in Chicago wheat by 902 contracts as of the Tuesday close. They reduced their net long in KC wheat by 6,652 contracts in a week.

Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.80 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents,
Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.11 1/2, down 7 cents,
Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at $8.04, down 8 cents
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