Today’s Grain Future

Corn futures closed lower following the USDA report. The USDA raised the old crop US ending stocks estimate by 10mbu to 769 MB. The estimate for imports is 25mbu higher; taking it to a record high 150mbu. The exports estimate is 50 mbu lower this month. FSI use was increased by 65 mbu, of which ethanol usage was 50 million. World ending stocks estimates were lowered 1.12 MMT for old crop and lowered 2.8 MMT for new crop. The forecasted national average yield for new crop corn was lowered 1.5 bpa, but acreage was unchanged. The official USDA 2013/14 ending stocks estimate is now 1.949 bbu, with total production of 14.005 bbu. In the weekly EIA report, ethanol production was down 1000 bpd at 884,000 bpd. Imports were zero again, and ethanol stocks shrunk by 2.6% from the previous week.

Jul 13 Corn closed at $6.50 3/4, down 8 3/4 cents,
Sep 13 Corn closed at $5.75, down 8 1/2 cents,
Dec 13 Corn closed at $5.37 1/2, down 13 1/4 cents
Mar 14 Corn closed at $5.48 1/4, down 13 1/4 cents

Soybean futures ended the day mixed, with the old crop holding on to a fractional gain after getting as high as $15.58 ¾ during the session. New crop November was down 12 3/4 cents. Imports were put at 25 mbu, up from 20 mbu on the May report. Old crop exports were estimated 20 mbu lower than last month. These changes were completely offset by an increase of 25 mbu in domestic crush use. The balance sheet was unchanged for new crop soybeans, except the average farm price estimate was bumped up 25 cents on both ends of the range. World soybean ending stocks were expected (on average) to be 62.12 MMT for 2012/13, and 74.04 MMT for 2013/14. The USDA put the actual estimate at 61.21 MMT for 2012/13, and 73.69 MMT for 2013/14.

Jul 13 Soybeans closed at $15.40 3/4, up 1/4 cent,
Aug 13 Soybeans closed at $14.45 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents,
Sep 13 Soybeans closed at $13.58 3/4, down 7 cents,
Nov 13 Soybeans closed at $13.14 1/4, down 12 3/4 cents,
Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at $461.40, down $2.00,
Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at $48.11, up $0.07

Wheat futures closed lower after a report that was bearish for US wheat but friendly in the world numbers. Chicago and KC were down by double digits, but Minneapolis was “only” 9 to 10 cents lower. The average pre-report trade guess was for US 2012/13 ending stocks of 734 million bushels(mbu) and the average guess for 2013/14 ending stocks was 655 mbu. This morning the USDA put those numbers at 746 mbu and 659 mbu respectively. World wheat ending stocks estimates were lower than expected by the trade. 2012/13 world ending stocks were lowered 300,000 MT, and 2013/14 world ending stocks were cut 5.13 MMT from the May estimate. The 2013/14 U.S. national average yield projection for all wheat was raised .5 bpa to 44.6bpa. Production estimates for each class of wheat came out higher than last month, and above the average trade estimates. The HRW production estimate is 13 mbu higher than it was last month.

Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.83, down 13 3/4 cents,
Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.16 1/2, down 13 1/2 cents,
Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at $8.06 1/4, down 9 1/2 cents