Today’s Grain Future

Corn futures closed 12 to 16 cents lower, erasing double digit gains from Friday. Forecasts for higher temps over the next two weeks are seen as positive for yield potential, as heat units have been lacking for most states west of Indiana. Weekly export inspections were expected to be poor, and they were only 6.36 million bushels. Cumulative shipments are only 546.7 mbu. compared to 1.242 billion a year ago. A Bloomberg survey of 28 analysts puts US corn production at 13.820 billion for the USDA reports on Wednesday. That is down from USDA’s 14.14 billion in May. USDA reported tonight that 95% of the US crop is now planted, vs. 98% average. Condition ratings declined 2 points on the Brugler500 Index.

Jul 13 Corn closed at $6.50, down 16 1/4 cents,
Sep 13 Corn closed at $5.77 1/4, down 14 1/4 cents,
Dec 13 Corn closed at $5.46, down 12 1/2 cents
Mar 14 Corn closed at $5.56 1/2, down 12 1/4 cents

Soybean futures sold off hard on forecasts for warmer and somewhat drier weather in the Corn Belt. Weekly soybean export inspections last week totaled only 3 million bushels vs. an already slow 4.49 million the prior week and 16.4 million a year ago. Cumulative shipments are 88 million bushels above year ago. According to a Bloomberg survey, the average estimate for old crop ending stocks (USDA report mid-morning on Wednesday) is 124 million bushels, expressing the belief that pipeline is pipeline and they just can’t go a lot lower. The average guess for new crop is 268 million. After the close, USDA reported that 71% of the US soybean crop is now planted. It would normally be at 84% by now. Emergence is of course lagging at 48% vs. 67% for the 5 year average pace.

Jul 13 Soybeans closed at $15.11 3/4, down 16 1/2 cents,
Aug 13 Soybeans closed at $14.35 3/4, down 20 1/2 cents,
Sep 13 Soybeans closed at $13.56 1/2, down 17 1/2 cents,
Nov 13 Soybeans closed at $13.19, down 11 1/4 cents,
Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at $448.30, down $4.20,
Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at $48.07, down $0.46

Wheat futures settled lower at all three exchanges today. Weekly export inspections for last week were 24.37 million bushels, up from only 16.8 million a week ago and also larger than in 2012. Of that 24.37 million, 4.625 mbu was old crop shipped prior to June 1. After the close, USDA reported that winter wheat harvest is now 5% done vs. the 16% average for this date. Condition ratings were UNCH with the Brugler500 index at 271. Spring wheat planting is 87% completed vs. 100% last year and a 96% average for this date. Only 71% of the crop is emerged, vs. the average of 89% for this date. Conditions declined from 64% good/ex last week to 62% this week.

Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.89 3/4, down 6 1/2 cents,
Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.26, down 9 cents,
Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at $8.11 1/2, down 8 1/4 cents